Why this matters:
Latino voters could decide the 2024 election. Representing 15% of eligible voters, they are crucial in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Texas. Trump’s participation in Univision’s “Los Latinos Preguntan” town hall on October 16 gives him a key opportunity to address undecided Latino voters.
By the numbers:
In National polling, Trump trails Kamala Harris among Latino voters 57% to 39%. In 2020, Biden won 65% of the Latino vote, especially among younger and first-generation voters. In 2016, Clinton captured 66% of the Latino vote, but Trump’s ability to make inroads among certain Latino groups shifted the dynamics for Republicans.
What to expect at the town hall:
Focus issues: Trump is expected to spotlight the economy—a top concern for 93% of his Latino supporters. Other key issues include immigration and crime, where he hopes to appeal to conservative-leaning voters.
Audience: The event will feature undecided Latino voters, providing Trump a platform to address concerns directly related to jobs, healthcare, and education.
Key battleground states:
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Arizona: Latinos make up 24% of voters. Biden narrowly won here in 2020, and Trump will need to improve his standing, especially with working-class Latinos.
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With over 50,500 new young Latino voters expected to turn 18 before the election, Arizona’s 11 electoral votes are crucial. Trump’s message will likely focus on border security and economic growth, key issues for working-class Latinos.
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Nevada: Latinos make up 19% of voters. Biden won by 33,500 votes in 2020, largely due to strong Latino turnout.
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Over 100,000 unregistered eligible Latino voters represent an opportunity for both campaigns. Trump’s message on job recovery and business support could resonate, but he faces a well-organized Democratic base among Latinos.
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Florida and Texas: Both states are critical for Trump, with Cuban-Americans in Florida and South Texas Latinos providing strong support. However, Trump needs to expand beyond these groups to secure their combined 69 electoral votes.
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In Texas, Latinos account for 30% of the electorate, and Trump made significant gains in South Texas in 2020.
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In Florida, Latinos represent 18.7% of voters, with Cuban-Americans strongly favoring Trump. He needs broader Latino support in the I-4 Corridor to secure the state’s 29 electoral votes.
What’s next:
Stay tuned for our post-town hall analysis, as well as catch us Friday Oct 18 at 7:30am on Almora Radio WQBA 1140, where we’ll break down Trump’s performance and examine how his answers could impact Latino voter turnout in these pivotal states.
