We’re just 45 days away from Election Day, and the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is heating up. Let’s dive into the latest polling data and battleground state updates—as I analyzed today on WQBA 1140 Radio with Jose Alfonso Almora.
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National Polling Averages
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According to RealClearPolling, the national polling averages show a tight contest between Trump and Harris, with Harris leading Trump by a narrow 1.9 point margin ¹. However, it’s essential to note that national polling averages can be misleading, and the presidential election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College.
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This Day in History
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Case in point, on September 20, 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 6.5 points in the national polls, while on September 20, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 1.3 points ¹. These historical snapshots serve as a reminder that national polling numbers can fluctuate significantly in the final stretch of the campaign.
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Electoral College System
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The Electoral College system allocates votes to each state, and candidates must secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. With several battleground states still up for grabs, the electoral map will play a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome.
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Battleground States
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These are the key battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.Â
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Currently, Harris is leading Trump in:
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Pennsylvania (47.5% to 46.5%)
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Wisconsin (49.3% to 48.1%)
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Michigan (49.6% to 47.6%)¹.Â
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Trump is leading Harris in:
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Arizona (48.4% to 46.8%)
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Georgia (48.0% to 46.3%)¹.Â
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While Trump and Harris are essentially tied:
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North Carolina (47.6% to 47.5%).
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Nevada (46.8% to 47%)¹.Â
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These states have historically swung between Democratic and Republican preferences, making them pivotal in determining the election’s outcome.
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Stay tuned for further updates as the election landscape continues to evolve. For the latest polling data and analysis, visit RealClearPolling.